South LA home prices: A data analysis by the USC Interactives Desk

Earlier this year, Los Angeles broke a new record — but it wasn’t necessarily one to celebrate. In May, the city’s population count climbed past the 4-million mark for the first time in history. By 2035, that record is expected to be broken again, as the Southern California Association of Governments expects the city’s resident count to hit five million.

Can LA’s housing market keep up? Data from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service (CRMLS) suggests no — especially not in neighborhoods close to downtown yet historically cheaper. Intersections South LA analyzed CRMLS data on single family residence prices in South LA, one of the areas most affected by LA’s population spike, from 2007 to 2017.

The maps curated from CRMLS data show how prices per square foot have changed in the sale of single family residences over the last 10 years.

Shortly after the financial crisis spiked in 2007, the real estate market began plummeting.

Maps: Yue Li

Prices in South LA stayed at a lower level during the following years, with single family residence prices averaging between $100 and $200 per square foot all throughout 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Maps: Yue Li

In 2013, prices started rising. As gentrification spilled over from Boyle Heights to South LA, the purchase price for a single family residence rose back to its 2007 level: between $300 and $400 per square foot.

Maps: Yue Li

Between 2016 and 2017, single family residence prices in South LA spiked, from averaging between $200 and $300 per square foot to between $300 and $500 per square foot. Neighborhoods in the western parts of South LA, such as Inglewood, West Adams and Hawthorne, have experienced the steepest rise in prices.

Maps: Yue Li

Listen to how residents in various South LA neighborhoods are affected by rising prices and gentrification in our four-part radio series, available on Twitter, Soundcloud and Instagram.

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Activists question affordable housing in Crenshaw Plaza renovation plan

“Development without displacement.” That’s the message Damien Goodmon, director of the Crenshaw Subway Coalition, wants people to remember about the organization’s fight against gentrification in his community.

Recent developments in the Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills neighborhood of South Los Angeles, including the LA Metro Crenshaw Line that will connect the area to LAX and a proposed revamp to the community’s 70-year-old mall, are making some residents apprehensive about displacement.

“There’s no low-income community that wants to stay low-income,” Goodmon said. “But people don’t want to have to move away to find opportunities or to afford housing either — people just want better communities where they are.”

The layout for planned Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza $700 million renovation. It includes building roughly 1,000 condominiums, ten percent are reserved for low-income housing. (Photo courtesy of LA Department of City Planning)

The Crenshaw Subway Coalition seeks to enhance the development of the neighborhood without compromising the community that lives there. Goodmon said his group’s efforts are focused on educating residents about the imminent threat of gentrification and “building a broad coalition of groups to pressure out-of-state developers to come to the table and listen to our concerns.”

The biggest threat to the neighborhood, Goodmon said, is the proposed housing development planned by one of these out-of-state development companies, a Chicago-based real estate firm called Capri Capital Investors that owns the mall. The housing project is part of the massive $700 million renovation to Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza, a shopping center at the corner of Crenshaw and Martin Luther King Jr. boulevards that opened in 1947. Capri Capital was unable to respond to a request for comment.

Construction by Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza. The renovation project hasn’t begun yet, but a light rail station LA Metro Crenshaw Line is being built next door and expected to open in 2019. (Photo: Christina Ungermann)

Luciralia Ibarra, senior city planner at the LA Department of City Planning, said the project will “lead to better housing choices for all.”

The proposed construction project includes building roughly 1,000 condominiums. Ten percent of those units, 100 condos, are reserved for low-income housing and the rest will be offered at market rate, according to the City Planning Commission, which is overseeing the project. Ibarra was unable to comment on the specific pricing of the condominiums.

Ibarra said that City Planning “is well aware of the pressure on the existing housing stock all of our communities face,” and that the city is “experiencing an unprecedented need to produce more housing to alleviate those pressures.”

But will the housing that the city and developers provide as a solution to these pressures truly benefit the majority of members in communities like the Crenshaw neighborhood?

The median household income in Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills is $37,948, one of the lowest-earning communities in the city, according to income figures in the LA Times neighborhood map of Los Angeles County.

To be eligible for low-income housing in Los Angeles, a person has to make no more than $50,500 per year, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That qualifies most Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills residents for housing assistance.

With those numbers in mind, building 100 condos for low-income occupants into the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza revamp isn’t enough to meet community needs, Goodmon said.

“People will have to jump through hoops to get this housing, and yet we’re supposed to applaud these figures as though they are something to be cherished,” he said, using an example to explain. It’s like “having a dollar, and then I take 90 cents away and give them back 10. Would that make you happy?”

A Crenshaw Boulevard street sign near the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza. (Photo: Christina Ungermann)

Goodmon views the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza project as a continuation of a trend in Los Angeles: “the acquisition of mom-and-pop apartments in black and brown areas by large corporations.” This, he said, is because of a “yes by default” attitude in local government when it comes to greenlighting construction projects in low-income neighborhoods.

“There is a fear of gentrification and displacement in the community.”

— Luciralia Ibarra, senior city planner

The Crenshaw Subway Coalition sees this threat especially in communities with large percentages of people of color, like Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills. African Americans make up more than 70 percent of the neighborhood population, which is also 17 percent Latino, almost 5 percent Asian American and less than 4 percent white, according to the LA Times.

“It’s difficult to look at the aggressive tactics of those in the private sector and the apathy of those in the public sector who should be protecting black and brown people and not see the connection,” Goodmon said.

The LA Department of City Planning has “heard from community groups who have expressed concerns over the project,” said Senior City Planner Ibarra. She added that the government body recognizes that “there is a fear of gentrification and displacement in the community.”

In addition to including 100 low-income units in the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza development, Ibarra said, the city government is “advancing a number of long-lasting strategies to ensure housing is affordable at all income levels.”

City Planning hopes to streamline the process for receiving low-income housing, she said. California is also working to incentivize the creation of more affordable residences through the Density Bonus Program, which allows developers to build housing beyond what zoning laws would normally allow if they include a certain amount of low-income housing.

The Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza housing development is an example of this law in action.

While these efforts may be a step in the right direction, activists like Goodmon argue that the only true way to have development without displacement is to include community members in the planning of construction projects.

Ibarra of City Planning said her department has done this by “holding a number of workshops and informational meetings to obtain ideas and solutions to our challenges.” But the Crenshaw Subway Coalition maintains that such efforts don’t get to what they say is a huge issue: Large out-of-state investors will never truly understand the needs of the neighborhood.

“The root of the problem is that housing is currently a commodity, and profit motives lead to market manipulation by these companies,” Goodmon said. His organization focuses on countering this by “advocating for policies that change how we think about development,” he said.

The Crenshaw Subway Coalition’s website contains a letter that the organization, along with 79 other community groups, sent to LA legislators including Mayor Eric Garcetti, city planning commissioners and others. It implores the city leaders to put a hold on the mall’s renovation project until a health impact assessment is conducted.

The coalition states, on its website, that this assessment would answer lingering questions about “how many residents are at risk of being placed in further financial strain and/or indirectly displaced (a type of displacement that occurs when residents and businesses are gradually priced out/harassed out of the area and must involuntarily leave).”

The letter was sent in May but there has been no attempt to conduct a health assessment, according to the group’s website, and the project is expected to move forward as planned.

Many community members are dissatisfied with what they see as paltry efforts by local government to curb gentrification. Eddie Stokes, an artist who was hanging out at the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza on a recent weekday afternoon, said that government officials and those in the private sector are “taking people that are already here and moving them like chess pieces.”

Eddie Stokes, an artist who was hanging out at the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza on a recent weekday afternoon, said that government officials and those in the private sector are “taking people that are already here and moving them like chess pieces.” (Photo: Christina Ungermann)

He is not totally opposed to development in the community. “You always need to update your infrastructure to accommodate the next generation,” he said. But Stokes does have a problem with those who “don’t make accommodations for those with lesser means,” adding that “there’s a problem with their thought process.”

Another visitor to the mall, David Felix Fisher, said he moved to Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills from New Orleans in 2005 after losing everything in Hurricane Katrina. He has been battling homelessness and housing insecurity ever since.

Fisher sees his living situation, and the city’s current housing crisis, as a symptom of racism. “LA is one of the most racist places I’ve been in the whole United States, and I’ve been a lot of places,” he said.

David Felix Fisher said he moved to Crenshaw/Baldwin Hills from New Orleans in 2005 after losing everything in Hurricane Katrina. He has been battling homelessness and housing insecurity ever since. (Photo: Christina Ungermann)


“Zillionaires don’t want to live right next to low-income people. Their lifestyles are very different. They don’t want low-income people living in this mall.”

— David Felix Fisher

Both Stokes and Fisher talked about fundamental misunderstandings between that haves and have-nots, as well as between white people and people of color.

“Zillionaires don’t want to live right next to low-income people. Their lifestyles are very different,” Fisher said. “They don’t want low-income people living in this mall.” He added that even though there are plans to include some low-income housing, eventually the new development will likely bring up prices and push people out anyway.

Stokes sees the wealthy as having a “not in my backyard” mentality, while the poor “start to resent you when you push them out,” he said.

The artist also sees a connection between racial prejudices and misunderstandings.

“People seem to forget that historically, black people were not allowed to move in [to suburbs] and you had white flight [from urban areas],” he said. The issue is now, after decades, “white people want to move back in,” which can perpetuate tensions between current and future residents.

Stokes acknowledged that this trend of migration is to be expected, but he said that doesn’t stop it from being a highly disruptive process, especially without proper regulation.

If there is to be any hope for developing in low-income communities in a way that satisfies all the stakeholders, “everyone has to stand as one,” Fisher said. “The humiliation, the hatred, the racism all have to go.”

While it’s doubtful that a fundamental change of that scale can occur before the new Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza is completed, activists and community members will continue to work toward a sustained cooperation with the city government and developers on this project as it gets further along in the building process, along with more large-scale developments in the future.

Owners aim to sell Reef project, community leaders still oppose the complex

A year ago the Los Angeles City Council approved a massive $1.2 billion development in the Historic South Central neighborhood of South LA. Just blocks away from the I–10 freeway on Washington Boulevard the plan would bring 1,400 apartments and condominiums, a hotel and more than 120,000 square feet of commercial space to the area.

The project’s name has changed a few times since plans were announced in 2014. Most recently the 9.7 acre development took on the moniker “Broadway Square Los Angeles,” originally it was called “SoLa Village.” For clarity, this article will reference the project by an earlier title members of the community use, “the Reef.”

The approved development hasn’t broken ground yet, but the current owner PHR LA Mart, is looking to either sell the property or to find a building partner. Laurie Lustig–Bower, executive vice president of CBRE Group Inc., said the project’s massive scale is what has the owner looking for options. CBRE represents PHR LA Mart and carries the property listing.

“We’re marketing the property on a global basis,” Lustig–Bower said. “ I think it's a wonderful opportunity for a company to actually take on a project like this. It will help define the Los Angeles skyline because of what we can build here.”

Plans to build the Reef are currently on hold, but likely not for much longer. The bid deadline to buy or partner on the development just passed on at the beginning of the month. In the interim, community leaders from throughout South LA are battling to keep the project out of the neighborhood because of fears it will price out current residents.

“This is a project that no one in the community is going to benefit from,” said Clemente Franco, an attorney in the area, and treasurer for the South Central Neighborhood Council.

There are 96 neighborhood councils in Los Angeles. They comprise of “people who live, work, own property, or have some other connection” to their community, according to the city’s Department of Neighborhood Empowerment website. Members are voted in by residents and certified by the city. The leaders of the South Central Neighborhood Council have been voicing concerns over the Reef development for years.

“This is one of the poorest neighborhoods in Los Angeles and no one will be able to afford it,” Franco said.

Beyond predicting underutilization by current residents in the area, he believes the project will compound issues like economic inequality and the negative impacts of gentrification that are already cropping up in South LA.

“We’ve already seen investors going in and buying property and evicting people. It’s going to lead to more displacement,”

— Clemente Franco, attorney

Earlier this month, for example, more than 70 tenants in neighboring Exposition Park took to the streets to protest eviction notices announcing they have to vacate their apartments by mid-January. The renters believe the 6-building complex that was recently purchased in September for $8.5 million will be turned into USC student housing.

Through information sessions and community organization the South Central Neighborhood Council worked to inform the public about the pending Reef development.

“We had several community forums, one where we invited folks from the Reef,” said Franco. “There were quite a bit of outreach efforts.”

In addition to community outreach, the group also voiced their disapproval of the Reef to members of local government, including LA City Councilmember Curren Price Jr.

Price represents the city’s 9th District, where the Reef is planned to go. Recently re-elected to his second term in March, he’s received criticism from anti-development groups in the area for supporting the project.

“I grew up in the Ninth Council District, and for far too long, the community has been overlooked and disregarded,” Price said in an emailed statement. “The Reef represents a significant investment in our community without any public money or subsidies. We have not seen that show of confidence in South LA in decades.”

In protest of Price’s endorsement of the Reef, the South Central Neighborhood Council has visited his office and organized multiple sit-ins at city hearings regarding the project.

“I asked the Reef to contribute resources unlike anything we have ever seen in the City of Los Angeles, which will provide benefits to improve the short and long-term quality of life for our community,” Price said. “I am certain this development will set the tone for future developments in the Ninth Council District to do more than simply 'build' in our community, but to provide meaningful, long-term investment for our residents that will benefit generations to come.”

The project developers tried to quell community resentment and ease tensions by offering a public benefits package. It included reserving a percentage of the proposed housing for low-income tenants, an agreement to make 30 percent of the construction jobs local-hires, adding more street trees and $18 million to protect affordable housing contracts. Area nonprofits and many residents were not satisfied.

Photo credit: Johnny Flores.

Strategic Actions for a Just Economy (SAJE) has made some of the biggest contributions to the community fight against the Reef development. For more than 20 years the nonprofit has been dedicated to economic justice for vulnerable residents with a focus on “tenant rights, healthy housing and equitable development,” according to their website. SAJE went to bat against the developer’s concession to set aside 5 percent, or 27 units, of the 540 apartments for low-income residents.

“The Reef went through with its approvals and we didn’t think there was enough affordable housing,” said SAJE Executive Director Cynthia Strathmann. They filed a lawsuit in December of 2016.

The nonprofit used a common anti-gentrification tactic to demand further concessions from the developers: citing environmental concerns through the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

Strathmann acknowledged CEQA lawsuits are frequently used to combat undesired building projects, but she said it was particularly important and relevant in this instance.

“Wealthy people move in and they don’t take the bus because they’re rich.

— Cynthia Strathmann, SAJE Executive Director

“Wealthy people move in and they don’t take the bus because they’re rich. Lower income people are [moved away from] transit lines and they turn to automobiles,” Strathmann said. “They drive more and you have more greenhouse gas production.”

SAJE and the Reef developers settled before getting to litigation. The nonprofit did not directly receive any money in the settlement. However they did get a small, yet significant, win for their cause. The project will now provide 5 percent low-income housing for all of the roughly 1,400 apartments and condos in the development plan, boosting the number of subsidized units from 27 up to 72.

While Franco can’t speak for the entire South Central Neighborhood Council, he said it is entirely possible the group will give up on organized efforts to oppose the Reef development. Citing their previous successes, Franco said while councilmembers will likely continue to personally oppose the project, for now there are no plans to keep resisting in an official way.

“At this point it seems that it may be too little, too late to do anything given what's transpired,” he said.

Franco is still hopeful after seeing the fruits of their labor informing and organizing community members around the Reef project, that residents will continue to battle against future developments that could negatively impact the community.

“People are more energized, involved, scared definitely, but now they see that they have to do something,” he said.

Pending revamp to South LA mall gets mixed reviews from businesses and workers

Driving up to Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza, the main landmarks are what you might expect in an average mall: a two story parking structure, a nice-looking movie theatre, and a long building bookended by Sears and Macys.

The plaza has been through a lot since it opened in 1947, including two major renovations in just the last 25 years. Both revamps, however, pale in comparison to the $700 million proposal authorized by the LA city planning commission and expected to be approved by LA city council. That would transform the nondescript mall into a retail mecca.

“People are always a little skeptical of change and they equate that with fear,” said Shoneji Robison, co-owner of Southern Girl Desserts. “It’s just they’re afraid of something new happening. But once it actually happens, it’s here, I think a lot of people will start to see the benefits of those changes and welcome it.”

Robison’s cupcake store and bakery has a prime location in the plaza, just inside one of the main entrances. The chandelier-lit bakery has a glass case full of brightly colored temptations, with flavors like vanilla with buttercream, sweet potato and Hennessy and Coke.

“People are always a little skeptical of change and they equate that with fear,” said Shoneji Robison, co-owner of Southern Girl Desserts. “It’s just they’re afraid of something new happening. But once it actually happens, it’s here, I think a lot of people will start to see the benefits of those changes and welcome it.” (Photo: Tatum Johnson)

“Baking was always a passion, something that we knew how to do, a skill that we had,” Robison said. “Both myself and my business partner being from the South, baking is just a staple, something that we all do.”

After started in their home kitchens, Robison and business partner Catarah Hampshire opened their shop in the plaza five years ago. Success came quickly, especially after Southern Girl Desserts won Food Network’s Cupcake Wars in 2013.

“It’s more than just people coming to buy a cupcake,” Robison said. “Like, we really have gotten the opportunity to know our customers. They know us. We know about their families.”



Farther down the hall from Southern Girl Desserts is a video game store called Game Force. Green walls are lined with hundred of games mostly for Playstation and XBOX. Nicolas Casillas stood behind the register in a blue Nirvana t-shirt.

“In nine years you see a lot of things, mostly for the positive I would say,” he said. “Prior to me working here I heard a lot of stories from the previous employees that in the 90s and heading into 2010 there were a lot problems in the neighborhood that affected the mall. They had issues with like gangs and violence close to here. They had a lot of issues of that nature.”

Casillas said there was a food-court shooting a couple of years ago but nothing like that really happens anymore. Overall he sees the mall as a positive for the community.

“Economically, it provides a lot. It provides jobs, a cornerstone where people can go and chill and hang out,” Casillas said. “Management, they’ve tried to really pursue avenues where they bring entertainment and different cultures and get them to vibe together. It’s all been good. It’s all been positive.“

“It’s never a negative to have more customers,” said nine-year Game Force employee Nicolas Casillas. “It brings growth to the neighborhood. Same thing with the economics of it, more jobs, more stability, more positive things to come basically.” (Photo: Tatum Johnson)

For a long time the plaza was a cultural hub for African Americans in Los Angeles, known for having a black Santa Claus during the holiday season. But the city is changing, and so is the mall.

“There are people from all walks you know. It’s very diverse. It reflects everybody,” Casillas said. “It’s primarily, I would think African American, then there’s a lot of Latino population that frequent the mall. We’re also starting to get a lot Caucasian, and Asian, and people from different countries as well. We get people from Brazil, just a variety of everything.”

Casillas thinks redeveloping the plaza will broaden the mall’s customer base.

“It’s never a negative to have more customers,” he said. “It brings growth to the neighborhood. Same thing with the economics of it, more jobs, more stability, more positive things to come basically.”

Over the course of six years the mall will expand to include a 10-story office building, a 400 room hotel and 1.2 million square feet of new housing. It will still be under construction when the Crenshaw Metro Line opens right next door in 2019. The light rail will connect Crenshaw and Baldwin Hills to Inglewood and LAX.

Upstairs from Game Force, pop music blares from inside Claire’s, a garishly decorated chain store that offers ear piercings and cheap accessories popular with tweens. Jasmine Casillas, not related to Nicolas Casillas at Game Force, is stocking the shelves. She’s apprehensive about recent changes to the area.

“I feel like I have mixed reviews,” Casillas said. “Just because I think they’re going to be doing the metro, and redoing it to make it a lot nicer, but then with that also comes gentrification and the pushing out of people who already live here.”

Hers is a common fear in low income urban areas. When there’s limited housing and high rents in the rest of the city, developers go looking for investment opportunities in neighborhoods like Crenshaw. Since the Crenshaw Line broke ground in 2014, the median home value in the surrounding neighborhoods has increased by almost 50 percent, according the real estate website Trulia.

Back inside Southern Girl Desserts, Robison doesn’t think the looming changes will impact the community’s love for the mall.

“They’ve watched it grow and go through many many phases,” she said. “And the people that are here, who witnessed it, they continue to come, they continue to support, and I believe it’s something that they want to see continue to grow and thrive.”

Across the country urban areas are transforming at an unprecedented rate. The Baldwin HIlls Crenshaw Plaza is part of a nation-wide trend to center the needs of daily life near transit stops. The big question is: will current residents and businesses survive that transformation?