Super Bowl weekend is here, and while some may be disappointed about the repeat matchup, this iteration promises a completely different chess match as both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers could not be more different teams than they were four years ago.
On one hand, you have a Chiefs team that has done a complete 180 since 2019: a team built on a stout defense and a physical running game, with their quarterback less focused on burning defenses downfield and rather meticulously marching the offense forward. On the other sideline lies a 49ers team that may be weaker on defense, but has realized its full evolution on offense with an all-star skill player lineup and the quarterback Kyle Shanahan has been wishing for since he took the job in 2017. Both are very complete teams worthy of hoisting that Lombardi trophy. With margins so thin, let’s run through what the Chiefs and 49ers must get right on offense and defense this Sunday to leave Las Vegas with the victory.
Long gone are the days when the Kansas City Chiefs offense would play backyard football, with Patrick Mahomes & co. asserting their will on defenses through the air. Beginning last offseason with the departure of superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the offense has seen an evolution from relying on the air to the ground game, culminating in a playoff run that has seen the Chiefs average 127.3 rush yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry on 30 attempts, numbers which all would have ranked in the top ten for offenses in the regular season.
The Chiefs have found success through the ground in the playoffs, and they should continue the momentum as the strategy plays into San Francisco’s weaknesses – through two games, the team has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (147), falling off after allowing a third-best 89.7 yards per game during the regular season.
More specifically, look for Kansas City to attack San Francisco with quick-hitting runs to take advantage of their aggressive defensive line; the 49ers run a one-gap 4-3 defense, meaning their front seven players are tasked with exploding off the ball and attacking their single-gap, thus leaving them vulnerable to run schemes like trap, pin-pull, or other gap schemes — plays built around the offensive line neutralizing one or two defensive linemen via trap, pin, or pull blocks to create space for the runner.
Expect to see a ton of horizontal run plays like crack tosses and jet sweeps, too, with the team’s edge defenders, particularly Chase Young, having been liabilities against the run in recent weeks and running repeatedly at All-Pro defensive end Nick Bosa being a prime strategy for tire him out and thus reduce his impact on pass rush situations. Ultimately, a heavy dose of quick-hitting runs both inside and outside will help Kansas City establish a rhythm while taking advantage of San Francisco’s weaknesses on their front seven.
On defense, the key to controlling the game for the Chiefs will revolve around erasing Brandon Aiyuk, who, while underlooked in San Francisco’s pantheon of superstars, has been integral to the 49ers’ success this year, leading the team in receiving yards (1342) and explosive plays (28) during the regular season.
He’s Brock Purdy’s number one target, and the NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions clearly showed how disjointed the 49ers offense can look when Purdy and Aiyuk are not on the same page — in the first half versus the Detroit, the 49ers only put up seven points on the board as Purdy went one-for-six in passes to Aiyuk. And while taking out a great receiver from the game is a win for any defense, slowing down Aiyuk could have even larger schematic implications that would allow defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs D to really take control of the game.
The 49ers like to play in unbalanced formations with Aiyuk typically on the single receiver side, with the philosophy being to overload one side of the field while having an ace receiver on the back end to fall back to if the concept to the passing strength breaks down. Thus, if a corner were to lock down Aiyuk and thus erase the backside, the Chiefs' defense would be able to overload the passing strength as well and thus be able to double Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, or Deebo Samuel on any given play.
Handling a second-team All-pro is easier said than done, but the Chiefs have just the man to do it in L’Jarius Sneed, who has been phenomenal throughout the playoffs. If Sneed can erase Aiyuk from the game, expect the 49ers passing attack to look as choppy as it did in the first half against Detroit.
Like the Chiefs, the 49ers’ best plan of action on offense is to pound the football, as not only is it a strength but also the best way to attack a Chiefs defense which has been dominant through the air but fragile on the ground.
Even before considering scheme or the chess match between Spagnuolo and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, it really is as simple as just relying on the superstar that is Christian McCaffrey. After all, the former Stanford Cardinal accounted for over 120 total yards and two touchdowns against both the Packers and the Lions and closed the game out in the NFC championship to help bring the 49ers to Las Vegas.
Yet even when considering scheme and the Chiefs’ personnel, it also becomes clear that attacking the Chiefs through the ground is the best course of action — in the regular season, the Chiefs ranked fifth to last in rush yards per game allowed (113.2) and EPA by the defense (-26.09), numbers that have stayed the same during the postseason with Kansas City allowing 113 rush yards per game during their last three outings.
Funny enough, how they should go about running the ball is eerily similar to how the Chiefs should attack the 49ers: like the Chiefs with Nick Bosa, they should target Chris Jones, the Chiefs’ best pass rusher, through trap blocks, pins, and pulls, as he’s been an underwhelming run defender this year and will be exhausted come the fourth quarter with such run schemes aimed at beating him up. Furthermore, they should strongly rely on outside zone runs, which typically see much success against the two high safety coverage structures the Chiefs base their defense around (two-deep safety coverage structures leave one less linebacker or safety in the box to swarm the run).
The 49ers running the ball will thus put the ball in the hands of their best playmaker while also exploiting the Chiefs’ defense’s biggest weakness. Moreover, it will allow San Francisco to control the game while limiting the possessions Mahomes & co. have on the other side. Many criticized Kyle Shanahan for abandoning the run too quickly in this very matchup four years ago, and it's time for him to silence those demons and pound the rock to win.
For 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, formulating a game plan to stop an offense led by the football equivalent of Michael Jordan will be daunting, yet the answers to at least slow him and the Chiefs offense down are there if San Francisco commits to running single-high coverage structures to suffocate the run and take Travis Kelce out of the game.
For context, single high coverages, such as cover one or cover three, are defensive coverage structures where one safety is aligned deep in the middle of the field with the corners on opposite ends and linebackers underneath playing man or zone. Since there’s only one safety deep, the defense gains an extra player in the box to help stop the run, a strategy the 49ers will likely rely on with the Chiefs expected to lean on the run game to establish a rhythm and take advantage of the 49ers’ struggling edge defenders.
Moreover, San Francisco is well positioned to be aggressive in stopping the run based on how singular Kansas City has been in its dropback game; per Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs ranked tenth-to-last in play-action pass attempts last year, meaning that the 49ers linebackers and safeties should thus be quick to crash down and suffocate the Chiefs’ rushing attack when they see Mahomes go to hand the ball off.
In addition to helping stuffing the run, single high coverage structures are also the answer to manning up Travis Kelce and taking him out of the game. In single high coverages, particularly cover one, that extra safety or backer in the box can be assigned to come down and press the tight end or slot weapon, such as Kelce, which will be crucial for disrupting his timing with Patrick Mahomes and limiting his production. If that player can be someone like All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, an alien in pass coverage with rare length and movement skills at the linebacker position, or even standout cornerback Charvarius Ward, the 49ers could succeed in taking Kelce out of the game and forcing Mahomes to look elsewhere. And even if Kelce plays up to his All-Pro standout and handles the 49ers’ best coverage defenders, Wilks could call cover one or cover three double, variations of the same coverages where a safety is assigned to double Kelce over the top. Ultimately, the single high coverages with the option to double are the best answer to stopping Travis Kelce.
With an extra man in the box and potentially an extra safety on Kelce, this strategy will force Kansas City to work outside the box and thus rely on Mahomes and his receivers to win the game, be it through screens or deep passes. And while relying on arguably the greatest quarterback ever to step up and lose you the game may be reckless, it’s more of a bet on the receivers failing to execute, as they repeatedly have all year. Be it in running routes incorrectly or dropping the ball, the Chiefs wide receiving corps has struggled mightily outside of impressive rookie Rashee Rice, and therefore, the 49ers’ best bet is to ultimately rely on them to make the plays rather than Isiah Pacheco on the ground or Travis Kelce in the middle of the field.