Super Bowl LIX Breakdown and Prediction

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has rejuvenated Philadelphia’s defense in impressive fashion. The longtime defensive guru called plays this season for the league’s No. 1 overall defensive unit, a major turnaround for a defense that ranked No. 26 in 2023. Philly was also first in defensive efficiency this season, per ESPN.

Fangio’s scheme was not the lone contributor to the Eagles’ defensive turnaround, as Philly saw major contributions from several offseason acquisitions.

Rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean blossomed in Fangio’s system, both earning Rookie of the Year nominations. Linebacker Zack Baun, a former special teams ace in New Orleans, signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal with Philadelphia and earned a first team All-Pro nod, becoming a cornerstone of Fangio’s defense.

Second-year defensive tackle Jalen Carter was also key to Philly’s success, totaling four-and-a-half sacks and 53 pressures while being double teamed on 79 percent of his snaps. Carter has game-wrecking ability and will likely be on top of Kansas City’s scouting report.

While Philadelphia boasts an impressive defensive line with the likes of Carter, Josh Sweat, Milton Williams and Nolan Smith, perhaps the most intriguing stat heading into Sunday’s matchup is the Eagles’ ability to limit opposing offenses even when defenders fail to generate pressure.

Philly’s defense boasts a league best -0.01 EPA (expected points added) per play when it does not generate pressure. This can be attributed to a disciplined and fast back seven who fly to the ball and limit yards after catch.

Fangio’s 3-4 defensive scheme, which utilizes two-high shell looks and light boxes, benefits heavily from this. This scheme looks to limit big plays from opposing offenses, banking on the defensive line getting home and efficient tackling from the back end.

This strategy works in Philly’s favor against the Chiefs, as Kansas City head coach Andy Reid’s offensive philosophy thrives off of yards after the catch. Kansas City ranks in the bottom third of the league in terms of explosive offensive plays, as Reid’s offense slowly chucks away at opposing defenses rather than taking down-the-field shots.

The Chiefs thrive off of staying ahead of the sticks, making third downs easier on themselves. With Philly being so stout against this type of offensive philosophy, it is key Kansas City establishes a run game early on Sunday. This would force Philadelphia to stack the box, something Fangio prefers not to do, opening up downfield looks for guys like Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins.

Overall, Reid must force Philly to respect Kansas City’s rushing attack, which will be a tall order against the Eagles’ 10th-ranked rush defense. Fangio and company will simply not allow the Chiefs to methodically chip away at them.

Jalen Hurts once again finds himself a game away from achieving immortality in Philadelphia sports history.

Philly’s signal caller was able to take a step back this season with the emergence of MVP candidate and Offensive Player of the Year winner Saquon Barkley.

After an up and down regular season, Hurts put together an efficient stretch of postseason play to get Philadelphia back to the Super Bowl. He totaled 627 yards, seven touchdowns and perhaps most importantly, zero turnovers, through three games.

An underlooked aspect of Hurts’ game is his ability pre-snap. Hurts has shown he can successfully change plays at the line of scrimmage and diagnose what the defense is showing him, whether that be sliding protections or checking to a run-play.

Although Hurts kept the ball out of harm's way, he did sometimes struggle to find rhythm as a passer, especially in his first two matchups against Green Bay and Los Angeles. Hurts has often looked indecisive and unwilling to attempt tight window throws this season, holding on to the ball for four-plus seconds and taking numerous coverage sacks.

Hurts has taken 11 sacks this postseason, absorbed a career-high 9.5 sack percentage this season and leads the league in average time to throw (3.31 seconds).

Hurts has seemingly taken this conservative approach in an effort to limit turnovers – which has worked – but the Eagles quarterback must be more decisive if he wants to move the ball through the air against Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s system.

Spagnuolo’s blitz-heavy 4-3 scheme often flusters opposing quarterbacks, forcing them to make quick decisions. Kansas City brought pressure on 41% of drop backs in the fourth quarter this season, per ESPN, as the Chiefs have shown to be a very timely and disciplined unit when blitzing.

In Philadelphia’s 21-17 win against Kansas City in 2023, Spagnuolo blitzed Hurts on 14 of his 28 dropbacks, resulting in five sacks and an interception.

However, the numbers show that Hurts has dealt with extra pressure well this season, as he ranks second in the NFL with a 91 QBR while blitzed, per ESPN.

In what is projected to be a close game throughout, Spagnuolo will certainly look to make things difficult for Hurts with extra rushers. This should leave Kansas City’s cornerbacks on an island against Philly’s elite receiving threats, leaving it up to Hurts to be timely, decisive and accurate.

Winning in the trenches has been a key philosophy for general manager Howie Roseman throughout his tenure in Philadelphia and Sunday will be no different.

The Eagles come in with what is highly regarded as the best offensive line in football. Right tackle Lane Johnson, center Cam Jurgens and left guard Landon Dickerson were all named Pro Bowlers in 2024. Not to mention All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata protecting Hurts’ blindside and right guard Mekhi Becton, who has had a career resurgence since moving from tackle this season.

This unit is the forefront of Philly’s ground attack, which is of course headlined by the electric Barkley. The Eagles ranked second in the NFL in both total rushing yards (3,048) and rushing touchdowns (29) and ranked fifth in yards per attempt with 4.9.

Barkley averaged 3.8 yards before contact per rush, as 1,328 of his 2,005 regular season rushing yards came before contact, both league highs.

There are endless statistics that prove Philly’s dominance on the ground and the Eagles will almost certainly pound the rock early and often. Not only will Philadelphia turn to its running attack in an effort to move the football; they will do so to try to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, not to mention wearing down Kansas City’s defenders.

As far as those defenders go, the Chiefs present a strong front seven led by linemen Chris Jones and George Karlaftis and linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. Kansas City fared well against the run during the regular season, allowing 101.8 rushing yards per game, eighth-best in the NFL. However, in its two playoff games, Kansas City has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 148 rushing yards per game.

Philadelphia can take further advantage of its mismatch upfront by spreading Kansas City’s defense out. The Eagles used 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end, one running back) on 81% of snaps through the first three quarters of the postseason.

Barkley is averaging a staggering 6.9 yards per carry out of 11 personnel, while Kansas City is allowing 4.9 yards per carry against it. If Philly’s linemen are able to get to the second level and block downfield, the Chiefs defense is in for a long night. It will be key for Jones and company to create significant push and penetration off the line of scrimmage.

The Chiefs simply cannot afford to be bullied upfront by Philadelphia, especially if they find themselves in a hole early. This keeps the ball out of Mahomes’ hands and allows the Eagles to stay ahead of the sticks, which would certainly be a recipe for success.

The threat Philly poses on the ground is likely what both teams will focus on when gameplanning for this matchup.

Philadelphia comes into Sunday’s matchup with an elite set of receiving targets. Wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both posted productive 2024 campaigns while missing time in the regular season, and Dallas Goedert remains one of the league's premiere tight ends.

Brown and Smith posted 1000 and 800-plus yard seasons, respectively, in just 13 games each.

While Brown is considered the number one receiving threat on Philadelphia’s offense, Smith has had the most success against Kansas City in the past. The former Heisman Trophy winner has averaged 107 yards per game in his three career games against the Chiefs, including a 100-yard performance in Super Bowl LVII.

The duo combined for 196 yards and one touchdown in the first Super Bowl matchup between these teams, with Kansas City entering this year’s game without a key contributor on its back end.

With the departure of L’Jarius Sneed last offseason and injuries in the secondary, Kansas City’s cornerback personnel opposite All-Pro Trent McDuffie has been a question mark.

The Chiefs initially turned to former seventh-round pick Jaylen Watson to compensate for Sneed’s absence, but were forced to switch gears after he suffered an ankle injury in Week 7. Joshua Williams would replace Watson, but the third-year corner struggled with penalties, ranking 92nd out of 223 eligible cornerbacks via PFF.

Watson was able to recover and ease back into the lineup this postseason, playing 59% of snaps against the Texans in the Divisional round and 71% of snaps against the Bills in the AFC Championship.

Even with Kansas City’s preferred CB2 inserted back into the lineup, this head-to-head matchup favors the Eagles. Look for Philadelphia to attack the recovering Watson with both receivers situationally, with Brown boasting a large, strong frame and Smith bringing elite route-running ability.

Often an overlooked aspect of the game, special teams was a major factor the last time these two teams met on the big stage.

Up 28-27 early in the fourth quarter of that game, former Chiefs receiver Kadarius Toney fielded a short punt from his own 30-yard line. The speedster, accompanied by excellent downfield blocking, returned the kick down to Philadelphia’s five-yard-line, setting up the offense in plus-territory, where they eventually cashed in with a touchdown.

Special teams ultimately won the game for Kansas City. Kicker Harrison Butker nailed a go-ahead 27-yard field goal with eight seconds remaining in regulation to knock off the Eagles.

Butker had an efficient 2024 campaign, converting on 21 of his 25 field goal attempts. While he has remained a consistent kicker throughout his career, Butker truly shines in the postseason.

Butker has not missed a kick this postseason and has converted on 36 of his 40 career playoff field goal attempts.

The flip-side of Kansas City’s field goal unit has also shined at moments this season, having blocked two field goal attempts, including a potentially game-winning attempt against the Broncos in Week 10 and against Houston in the Divisional Round.

Kansas City also found a special teams diamond in the rough late this season in receiver Nikko Remigio. The former undrafted free agent filled in for return duties after a season-ending injury to Mecole Hardman and has provided a huge spark for the Chiefs in the playoffs, including a 63-yard opening kick return against the Texans and a 44-yard punt return against the Bills.

Philadelphia’s special teams, on the other hand, have been less consistent.

Jake Elliot, who has hit a multitude of clutch kicks during his eight-year stint in Philadelphia, has had his fair share of kicking woes this season. The former Pro-Bowler converted on just 77.8% of field goals this regular season, the second-worst percentage of his career.

Elliot most notably has struggled from 50-plus yards, a range that used to feel automatic for him, making just one of his eight attempts this season including the playoffs. Philly’s kicker has also missed three extra point attempts this postseason.

Whether it is the snap-to-hold operation or Elliot’s confidence, the Eagles’ field goal attempts are something worth monitoring.

On the plus side, Philadelphia’s kickoff coverage unit has flown to the ball this postseason, forcing and recovering two fumbles on opposing returners. Cooper DeJean has also provided a nice spark fielding punts, finishing 12th in the NFL in punt return yards with 211.

Special teams may be overshadowed by all of the star power on either sideline, however, all it takes is one missed extra point, shanked punt or big return to flip a game on its head.

It is difficult to bet against Kansas City. Mahomes and Reid are back for their fifth Super Bowl together and have a shot at history. However, Philadelphia’s roster is far and away more talented and if the Eagles can take advantage of favorable matchups, I love their chances. Albeit, the same logic could have been applied to the 49ers a year ago. The key for the Eagles is not to over complicate things and play to their strengths.

Overall, expect a close contest between the two best teams in football. While I trust no one more than Kansas City in big games, there is truly something special brewing in Philly. The team is far more disciplined than years past, well-coached and hungry for revenge.

Score Prediction: 27-23 Eagles

Super Bowl MVP: Saquon Barkley